Video Ad Tech 2016 Predictions!

There’s a rising tide in Ad spend, upcoming US election, Rio Olympics, European football, users demanding more respect, and new wave of premium inventory coming through – it’s going to be a busy year! Here’s what I hope or expect will happen in video ad tech.

  1. Rise of Ad-Supported-VOD (AVOD) over Subscription-VOD (SVOD) like Netflix, Now TV & Amazon, and the BBC are there first offering people strong content for a monthly fee. There are however only so many subscription services people will pay for, probably 3 or 4- it’s a zero sum game. There are however many media companies about to jump in and translate their strong brand recognition and original content into online platforms and apps. The big opportunity is to have these Ad supported instead of subscription based to gain market share quickly.
  2. Video SSPs bought or white labeled. This year there’ll be publishers creating more video, and traditional TV media companies taking their brand recognition and viewer base online. They will want to take their current Ad spend deals and run them against their new online inventory. This will require either whitelabeling or buying to help them vertically integrate to the demand side, take out more of the middle men and create a stronger proposition. On the flip side, 2nd gen ssp/exchanges who started in Display and didn’t move fast enough to Video will face a tough year.
  3. Shakeout of DSPs – They act as the gateway to the market for advertisers. As advertisers bring this knowledge in-house the DSPs built & modelled for this will survive. Ones that can provide a real point of difference, and can make the account managers using them look good will do well. Ones that present no points of difference are in danger, especially older ones with expensive legacy infrastructure & heavy manpower overhead.
  4. Trading desks under pressure as route to market becomes further commoditised. Those without their own compelling Ad products will be swept away.
  5. Agencies surviving by innovating creative, and partnering with supply tech providers to enable new innovative ways of storytelling. VR giveaway as with New York Times gives a good example of how cheap IoT hardware will be combined with Ad spend to tell both the publisher and marketers stories.
  6. Push back on in-banner, especially on mobile. Publishers themselves are already red-lining it. It won’t go away entirely, but just as small flash players were auto paused in chrome, the HTML5 <video> element which is now being used for in-banner video, could quite easily be auto-paused too. This would force the in-banner guys to go the HTML5 canvas route where the video is spliced into frames and sent to the browser as one large long image creating sudo video Ads that look like gifs. Mobile browsers are likely to clamp down on this harder to protect users data plans, but better 3rd party validation tech will achieve the same thing.
  7. Thinning of margins for the middlemen on the open web. If the content creator gets a bigger cut then this is a great thing. There is of course the danger of walled gardens like Facebook double, triple & quadruple dipping on charges in their closed ecosystems with new tech elements in their end-to-end stack, meaning pubs who put their content in them could end up with less revenue, especially with lack of available competition.
  8. Blocking of interstitials by browsers. Chrome already has ad blocking built in blocking popups. Browsers will do the same with Interstitials, especially full page “high impact” ad units. Of course email signup ones will get caught in this too, but you won’t find a user who’ll be put out by that.
  9. Leveling off of Adblockers. You can analogise it to other popular apps that users download, like Google maps on iOS – incredibly useful but only has ~30% install base. Android ad blocking is a pain, as more impressions move to mobile and connected devices like chromecast, then the net will start to level off.
  10. Mobile video to continue to grow, still lower fill than desktop, but stronger on in-app inventory where it can be properly validated. Fraud on mobile is the big issue not being talked about enough. The process by some mobile SSP’s of taking a video ad and transcoding it into a gif like animation to get around iOS not allowing autoplay video, thus creating muted sudo in-banner video will come out into the open.

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